June 22, 2023 - UNFXB

Gold bears concentrate on $1,925 break and Fed Chair Powell …

EURUSD

The EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a non-directional performance above the round-level support of 1.0900 in the Asian session. The major currency pair is following the footprints of the sideways US Dollar Index (DXY), which is expected to provide action after Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell’s testimony.

 If the pair continues the uptrend to the range of 1.0945, it is expected to continue the uptrend to the range of 1.0972.

On the other hand, If the pair continues the downtrend to the range of 1.0892, it is expected to continue the downtrend to the range of 1.0866.

USDJPY

USD/JPY regains upside momentum, after reversing from the yearly top the previous day, as it makes rounds to the intraday high of around 141.75 heading into Wednesday’s European session. The Yen pair cheers the latest breakout of an immediate resistance line stretched from the yearly top marked on Monday.

if the pair continues the uptrend to the range of 142.66, it is expected to continue the uptrend to the range of 143.08.

On the other hand, If the pair continues the downtrend to 141.02, it is expected to continue the downtrend to 140.60.      

GBPUSD

GBP/USD gained traction and advanced toward 1.2800 with the initial reaction to the UK inflation data, which showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 8.7% on a yearly basis in May, matching April’s increase and surpassing the market expectation of 8.4%.

If the pair continues the uptrend to the range of 1.2810, it is expected to continue the uptrend to the range of 1.2855.

On the other hand, if the pair continues the downtrend to 1.2717, it is expected to continue the downtrend to 1.2669.

AUDUSD

AUD/USD is catching a fresh bid, bouncing toward 0.6800 in Wednesday’s Asian session. The Aussie is benefiting from a pause in the US Dollar uptick as the market gears up for the bi-annual testimony of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Fresh US-China woes could cap the upside in the pair.

If the pair continues the uptrend to the range of 0.6799, it is expected to continue the uptrend to the range of 0.6845.        

On the other hand, if the pair continues the downtrend to 0.6742, it is expected to continue the downtrend to 0.6696.

XAUUSD

Gold price fades two-day-old bearish bias as it recovers from the intraday low amid the full market’s return. Even so, the yellow metal appears indecisive as a whole amid the mixed catalysts surrounding the US Fed and China, as well as the market’s inaction.

If the pair continues the uptrend to the range 1952.23, it is expected to continue the uptrend to the range of 1968.07.

On the other hand, if gold continues the downtrend to the range of 1913.99, it is expected to continue the downtrend to the range 1898.15.

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Gold prods $1,930 support ahead of multiple central bank news …

EURUSD

The EUR/USD pair has surrendered the majority of intraday gains added in the Asian session. The major currency pair has faced some selling pressure while attempting to recapture the psychological resistance of 1.1000.

 If the pair continues the uptrend to the range of 1.1046, it is expected to continue the uptrend to the range of 1.1102.

On the other hand, If the pair continues the downtrend to the range of 1.0932, it is expected to continue the downtrend to the range of 1.0876.

USDJPY

USD/JPY picks up bids to pare intraday losses around 141.75 amid early Thursday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Yen pair justifies recently dovish commentary from a Bank of Japan (BoJ) Official, versus the hawkish bias of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell.

if the pair continues the uptrend to the range of 142.41, it is expected to continue the uptrend to the range of 142.92.

On the other hand, If the pair continues the downtrend to 141.34, it is expected to continue the downtrend to 140.78.      

GBPUSD

GBP/USD is trading in a narrow range near 1.2750 ahead of the key BoE decision on Thursday. Pound Sterling ignores rising bets for a 50 bps BoE lift-off, following hot UK inflation data. A modest US Dollar bounce weighs on the pair.

If the pair continues the uptrend to the range of 1.2815, it is expected to continue the uptrend to the range of 1.2864.

On the other hand, if the pair continues the downtrend to 1.2705, it is expected to continue the downtrend to 1.2644.

AUDUSD

AUD/USD is trading with modest losses below 0.6800, progressing toward the European morning. Risk sentiment remains fragile amid expectations of more rate hikes by major global central banks, offering some respite to the US Dollar. Fedspeak, US data next in focus.

If the pair continues the uptrend to the range of 0.6821, it is expected to continue the uptrend to the range of 0.6845.        

On the other hand, if the pair continues the downtrend to 0.6757, it is expected to continue the downtrend to 0.6717.

XAUUSD

Gold remains on the back foot as it jostles with short-term key support, lacks a directional sense of late, as markets await a slew of central bank decisions. Apart from the pre-announcement anxiety, the holiday in China and mixed catalysts about the Fed also restrict the XAU/USD price moves.

If the pair continues the uptrend to the range 1941.54, it is expected to continue the uptrend to the range of 1950.70.

On the other hand, if gold continues the downtrend to the range of 1921.23, it is expected to continue the downtrend to the range 1910.08.

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BOE and SNB rate decisions, mid-tier US data to ramp up volatility

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England (BoE) will be the next major central banks to announce monetary policy decisions on Thursday. In the second half of the day, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US will be looked upon for fresh impetus. The US economic docket will also feature Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index and Existing Home Sales for May. FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on the policy outlook in the second day of his semi-annual congressional testimony. Finally, the European Commission will release the preliminary Consumer Confidence data for June.

On Wednesday, the US Dollar came under strong selling pressure during the American trading hours. The US Dollar Index (DXY) snapped a three-day winning streak and erased its weekly gains. The DXY stays relatively quiet, slightly above 102.00 early Thursday.

In his prepared remarks for delivery on the first day of the testimony, Powell reiterated that nearly all FOMC participants expect it will be appropriate to raise interest rates “somewhat further” by the end of the year. “We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting based on incoming data, implications for outlook and balance of risks,” Powell added. Following these comments, Wall Street’s main indexes turned south but the USD failed to capitalize on risk aversion. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed raising the policy rate by 25 basis points in July declined toward 70% from 77% ahead of Powell’s testimony.

GBP/USD fell below 1.2700 in the European session on Wednesday but staged a rebound later in the day. Early Thursday, the pair holds steady at around 1.2750. The BoE is widely expected to lift its policy rate to 4.75% from 4.5%. Since there will not be a press conference, investors will pay close attention to vote split and the language in the policy statement.

BoE Interest Rate Decision: Another 25 bps hike favored as UK inflation stays hot.

Following a three-day rebound, USD/CHF met resistance near 0.9000 and declined toward 0.8900 on Wednesday. The SNB if forecast to raise its key rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%.

EUR/USD gathered bullish momentum and climbed to its highest level since in over a month, above 1.0950. The pair continues to stretch higher toward 1.1000 early Thursday.

USD/JPY advanced to a fresh multi-month high near 142.50 on Wednesday but lost its traction in the late American session. The pair trades in a narrow channel below 142.00 early Thursday. Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Asahi Noguchi argued that a weak Yen hurts households via rising prices but benefits firms via an increase in overseas profits and a rise in inbound tourism. Noguchi further added that the monetary policy does not directly target exchange rates.

Gold price fell to its weakest level in three months below $1,920 on Wednesday but managed to stage a rebound amid retreating US Treasury bond yields in the late American session. Nevertheless, XAU/USD is finding it difficult to hold its ground early Thursday, trading in negative territory slightly below $1,930.

Bitcoin climbed above $30,000 for the first time in two months on Thursday. At the time of press, BTC/USD was up nearly 1% on the day at $30,300. Ethereum gained more than 5% on Wednesday and extended its rally early Thursday ETH/USD is already up nearly 12% this week and was last seen trading above $1,900,

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